Monday, March 27, 2017

- Why I'm Not Around Much Right Now

Yes, I've been remiss. I haven't been writing, or posting, or doing much of anything here on the blog. Sorry about that. My hands have been full on another project. I'm working on a startup, which has the potential to solve 'fake news'. I bounced it off an investment banker friend of mine, and he flipped over it. So we're both frantically working away to put together a working prototype and business plan for investor consumption.

I've been as close as you can get to a professional consumer of news for a very long time. So it's in my domain - sort of. I'm not ready to discuss the details yet, but I think it can be very (potentially VERY VERY) big. And though it's not ready for presentation yet, the single threaded engine that we'll be using to demonstrate the basics, produced its first output today. I've committed to having it ready by Friday, so I'm on schedule.

I've had a lot of bad ideas in my life, and so far anyway, only one very good one. But everyone I've spoken to about this seems pretty stoked about it. And I have to confess, I am too. After a decade of 'managed failure' I haven't been this excited about anything in a very long time.

Anyway, it's gonna be another couple of weeks before I have any real time to spout opinions again. And it might be even longer if things go well. But in the meantime, I thought I'd explain my absence and beg your indulgence for just a little while, while I do my best to cobble together an economic future for myself, from the wreckage of my post divorce life.

Friday, March 24, 2017

- Fun With Shooting Statistics

I couldn't help myself. In the same way that people always slow down to see a car wreck, I found myself watching the movie "Miss Sloan", a 'chick-porn' gun control-gasm from last year about a lobbyist taking down the dreaded 'gun-lobby'. It was a stupid film, making a stupid point, and I'm glad it did poorly in the box office. In the age of Trump's America, we're sick to death of being preached to by our liberal masters, and I never cared much for the ever dour Jessica Chastain.

But using the logic of the gun control lobby, I thought I'd have a little fun with the numbers they cite in the film.

For instance, in 2015 according to ceasefire USA, a group dedicated to stating the gun numbers at their worst, there were 40,105 deaths and injuries related to guns in America. There were roughly 300 million guns in America in 2015, but that's too generous. Instead let's make the numbers slightly worse by using the number of gun owners, which in 2015 was estimated by Ceasfire at 100 million. Assuming that each gun owner was only responsible for s single shooting that resulted in injury or death, that means that 0.04% of all gun owners were involved in a shooting resulting in death or injury in that year.

You got that? 0.04%. Four one hundredths of a percent. Not a big number, but it adds up in a big country. This is the 'public nightmare of the epidemic of gun violence'. Now let's use that same math in another way.

According the census bureau and the FBI universal crime report, in 2015 there were 151,626 violent crimes where the perpetrator was black. Taken from a population total of 37,685,848, and again assuming that each crime was committed by a single unique person, the violent crime rate among blacks in 2015 was 0.402%.

Again, that's not a big number, but it adds up in a big country. And by coincidence it's also perishingly close to ten times the percentage of gun owners, who could be said to be involved in an injury or death, using the exact same method, by one of the media 'go to' groups on shootings.

Is that clear? Using the identically oversimple method used to talk about the 'horror of gun violence' in America, the black violent crime rate is nearly 10 times worse.

This doesn't teach you anything really. All these numbers are meaningless. In truth, violent crime for any race is almost always a crime committed by young men, who make up no more than 25% of the population, and many are repeat offenders. Only a tiny minority of the black population is ever involved in a violent crime, and elderly blacks and black women are almost never involved except as victims.

By the same token, gun owners are sometimes involved in multiple deaths or injuries, and many of the actual shootings involve other criminality where the gun was not legally purchased or owned. So to simplify the numbers this way doesn't lead to truth, it leads to distortion of the truth.

For reasons that I hope will become clear in a few weeks, this issue has been very much on my mind lately.

So the only real lesson you can take from this is that you should never trust agenda driven 'statistics' - especially from liberals who are notoriously innumerate. But I thought it might be useful to highlight one of the ways we're all consistently lied to by Hollywood and the left.

- No Enemies To The Right

The rise of the Alt-Right and the election of Trump, has ended friendships. But the places it's done the most damage aren't across the left vs right divide. Those gaps were already entrenched on both sides with a no man's land between them. The big new arguments were between the old right, and the new.

I've had it happen to me personally. A National Review writer (who shall remain nameless) who I certainly considered a friend of mine, was so disgusted with my embrace of the alt-right's 'fight back always' position and it's abandonment of civility, that we stopped speaking.

This seemed like high irony a few weeks ago when Charles Murray, an old right/AEI intellectual who had the unmitigated gaul to report facts as he found them instead of twisting reality to suit the liberal narrative, was chased from a University campus by an angry mob of social justice warriors. Suddenly the old right was aghast that handing the left the moral victory without a battle was no longer enough for them, and the alt-right was looking more and more vindicated in it's take.

Well that process has come full circle now, and the source of the most active, vocal criticism of the alt-right's tactics, has been branded by the left as the true source of the Alt-right:

How National Review Helped Build the Alt-Right

The arguments made are not totally fallacious. NR at one point or another, employed our man Derb, Peter Brimelow, and Bob Weisberg, and continues to publish Victor Davis Hanson's notoriously practical and reality-realist take. Slate feels this is enough to 'blame' them for the alt-right, in spite of their denials.

If only NR could have seen this coming. If only they could have imagined that the left might consider tarring them with the same brush they themselves had been using for several years to tar their own right leaning allies. If only they could have imagined that after they came for the Derb, Peter Brimelow and Bob Weissberg, they would also be coming for them.

Ask not for whom the accusation of racism rings false National Review, it rings false for thee.

Thursday, March 23, 2017

-Takeaways from the Gorsuch Hearings

I had gone through several of the Gorsuch highlights on my own, both Dem and Repub. I am convinced that Senator Leahy is either stewed on the hooch or becoming senile
Its very simple to find particulars in youtube. As much as Ted Cruz lobbed softballs at Gorsuch, it was a poignant and educated direct examination of the appointment by someone that knows WTF he's talking about. I've linked the 30 minute video and it is well worth listening. Crowder compiles what the Looney Left is applauding as Highlights. Minnesota  should be ashamed of electing Al Franken to the Senate. He sits on the Judiciary committee yet legal terms are so foreign to this clown that he confused the "Absurdity Exception". A first year law student would have raised more poignant questions about Gorsuch than Al Franken. Franken cherry picked one of Gorsuch's opinions only to be schooled over and over again. What all of these nincompoops in t he Senate seem to be forgetting is that Gorsuch was appointed to the Circuit Court Ten years ago. They are playing "gotcha" with a guy that has Ten years on the federal bench as well as a history as a respected legal scholar. Dick Durbin goes down this path and winds up making Gorsuch look like a hero!
Below, Rush Limbaugh nails it: The Left is trying to smear Jimmy Stewart! 

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

- Regarding Tomi Lahren

As usual, I don't seem to appreciate what all the fuss is about. Tomi Lahren a young pretty girl, has decided that she can't be anti-government and pro-life at the same time. What do we learn from this? That's she's a pretty young girl with lots of potential breeding options, and she'd like to ride the carousel a while before settling down. That's it. There is no high minded constitutional debate here, in spite of what she or her now former (sometimes idiot) boss Glenn Beck says.

Ms. Lahren knows instinctively, as all young women seem to, that the minute the risk of premarital sex goes up, she's going to have a lot less of it. She doesn't want to be careful about it because that's a cost, and who wants to pay costs if you don't have to? The rest is really just rationalization.

If I were her, 24. blonde, and newly media ascendant, I might feel the same way. There is nothing so hard wired into women as hypergamy, and the desire to wrest full control of the breeding decisions away from men. It's got to be an awfully powerful bit of motivation. And if you were to reincarnate Mother Theresa into the body of a cute little blonde born in 1995, and drop her down into a world where her ego was as continually stroked as an American media darling, she'd probably feel the same way about it. In the same way that you can't stop young men from wanting to screw everything in sight, you can't stop young women in that circumstance from wanting to kill any accidentally conceived child.

Now it's true, not all women feel that way. But I'll bet the vast majority of 24 year old 9's who are rising rapidly in the media world do. The ego saturation is simply too overwhelming. She may end up married to a billionaire on a white horse, with a white private jet, or a handsome prince or whoever. And she's not gonna let a little thing like a pregnancy from the hot guy at the other end of the trailer park put a thing like that at risk.

For women in this situation It's self over others. Always. And that isn't to say I blame her for her choice. I mean, I think it's the wrong choice of course. But it's the question that's the problem (or really, the fact that it was ever asked of her) not her answer to it that's an issue.

As a corollary, imagine what you as a young man would have done to your steady girlfriend, three months after you won a 100 million dollar lottery. At first you'd say "I'll never change" and you'd mean it. But a few months bopping around the south of France or St. Barths with your buddies, spending big money and drawing the attention of all the 9+ women who hover in such places waiting for a guy like you, and you'd start to have doubts. Sooner rather than later (how much sooner correlated to your youth) you'd end up cheating and then dumping little miss faithful for the multitude of newly available options.

This is the same thing Tomi is doing. She's trading in the child of Mr. Trailer park for the possibility of a child with Prince Frederick of Ganserndorf - or whoever. And at least she's being intellectually consistent and honest about it. that's more than we'd get from most women. Many things may change about future America. But whatever happens, the abortion genie is going to be the very last one crammed back into it's bottle. Many women will die before conceding that point, without their ever knowing precisely why.

The real moral to this story is that we should making the minimum voting age 30 or something. Kids have no business making decisions as if they were grownups.

Monday, March 20, 2017

- Some Russian Jokes

A man walks into a Moscow shop and see's the shelves all empty. He says to the man behind the counter, "What's this, are you all out of meat?" The man says, "No, this is the shop that's out of bread. The shop that's out of meat is across the street." A classic. No wait, here's another one.

A man waits all day in line for food and just as he gets to the front of the line, the man behind the counter hangs an 'all out of Bread" sign on the door. the man loses it. He begins jumping up and down screaming and shouting. "This is a travesty. Have you no respect?! I'm a veteran. I shed blood for this country!" Seeing his visible anger, a man in a long trench coat sidles out of the crowd toward the man, looking vaguely like the secret police, and puts an arm gently over his shoulder.

"Comrade" he says, "You mustn't talk so. These days we don't make such a fuss but remember back in the old days what would happen." As he said this, he menacingly put a finger in the shape of a gun to the back of the man's head.

"Yes" said the man obviously frightened. "I understand. It won't happen again." When the man arrived home empty handed his wife asked him, "What's the matter, were they out of bread again?" The man responded, "It's worse than that. Now they're out of bullets."

... Ok one more, then I've gotta go.

A Russian general and an American general were seated beside each other at a diplomatic function. Bragging, the Russian General said to the American General "We Russians have the best supplied army in the world. We give every soldier in the field 1,300 calories per day." The American paused for a minute then said "General, we give American soldiers in the field 2,900 calories a day. "The Russian general paused for a moment and looked at his fingers as if doing math in his head, and then burst out laughing jovially. "Oh General, you're a wonderfully entertaining liar. But no soldier can eat an entire sack of potatoes in one day."

Ok one last Joke about the Russians:

FBI’s Russian-influence probe includes a look at far-right news sites

Try and catch me coppers. Top of the world Ma!

Friday, March 17, 2017

- The Move to #EndStPatricksDay

No, I'm not kidding:

White Pride can't be allowed in 2016 - #endstpatricksday.

For a guy who can trace his family back to Henry II and his "visit" to Ireland in 1172, I'm not such a big booster of St. Patrick's Day. I don't usually wear green or make much of a drunken fuss. I do own a Green Kilt (I own 2 actually, one in Blackwatch Tartan and a 'modern' kilt of Green canvas.) But for the most part I tend not to over indulge in my heritage on a single day, and instead kind of spread it out through the year.

But the idiotic shit listed above makes me want to go throw on my kilt, and saunter over the the Huffington Post offices (a block from me) and slug the first non-white male (ish) person I see.

And as a group, the Irish (certainly Irish Americans) are not the types to shyly look at their shoes and give up without a fight. For the most part we love a fight. The more fight the better. You wanna riot? The Irish will give you a riot. They don't call it "Belfast confetti" because it was invented in Italy.

And what's more, the Irish have never been done any real favors by anyone. In some respects we were the last actual 'minority' that it was OK to discriminate against. Well, one of them at any rate, and these days hating the Irish as 'white' is now considered mandatory. But my point is that if the Irish have anything at all it's because we fought, worked, and risked to get it. So we are none too inclined to apologize to the 'otherness' because they haven't done the same. So by all means you idiot progressives, keep it up. They'll be white riots again in no time if you all have your way.

- When White People Are Finally Put Down

There has been some talk in the usual regions, about how America will look once white people are relegated to the position that progressives would prefer for them - politically irrelevant servant class of the progressive elites.

I don't have much to add that you can't get from reading The Derb or the others on Vdare. But this video is one of Steve Sailer's contributions to the discussion. It's a hysterical look at what happens when black American culture runs headlong (wink) into Latin America culture.

As you can clearly see, the reason for all the ill will and hard feelings is obviously white racism. It's true, there are no white people visibly present. But a white person might possibly own the gas station the woman ran her car into. I know that isn't dispositive, but certainly a lot of white people own stock in the oil company, so ... there you go. White Racism.

Thursday, March 16, 2017

-RFNJ Debate Team: What Protectionism?

I want to keep this open to edit and allow Tom or anyone else to reply directly on the article.

Topic: Protectionism and Populism
Question: Is the United States becoming Protectionist via a return to Populism, or is this a return to lawfulness without curtailing the US's place in global economics?

Lately I have been inundated with macro/global financial commentators that Trump has ushered in a new era in Protectionism. Absurdly noted by the most hysterical commentators, Trump's Protectionism (America First) does not hearken to the days of Smoot-Hawley , but to more notorious dictatorial regimes. One commentator opined that Trump's Protectionism is derived from Populism therefore it was akin to Chavism or Peronista (a la Argentina). We have heard TeeVee  pundits call it Fascism, Hitlerian, Neo-Nazi, ad-nauseaum... I recently read a macro analyst make the outrageous comparison to Mussolini's Italy with the assertion that like Italy in the 30's America too will experience an immediate uptick in GDP. I had to call this "genius" and ask him when he expects the Fascisti to come round up the dissenters and how come Trump hasn't Nationalized industry as did Il Duce?!?!? I also asked him if it was fitting to compare Trump to Mussolini, why not Hitler or Hirohito?

My immediate observation: the macro financial analysts, even the sharp ones, are wrong and only repeating this drivel because the neo-globalists that buy their publications want to be right.
Give the people what they want.
The majority of investment houses lean left or more correctly lean Globalist. They can't afford to be wrong or their investors will scram, but they can't afford to be logical or the SJW's will storm their gates. A business openly endorsing Trump or America First type policies will only open itself up to being painted as RAAAACIST!!!

My Argument: the United States looks back on 15 to 20 years of accelerated globalism which has been fostered by, and continues to foster lawlessness. That lawlessness was exemplified by the Obama Administration refusing to enforce laws that maintained a modicum of "protection" via immigration and border security and even worse, failing to prosecute (and even pardoning) migrant criminals.
As a consumer nation, under Clinton we projected a second-place disposition. We will pay through the nose for Chinese garbage or Saudi oil  because it will show that we are lock-step with the new world agenda. GW Bush continued this with compassionate conservatism and acting as world police. We continued to allow illegal immigrants and phony refugees into our country but also maintained the sanctity of pro-globalist treaties and tariffs.
Trump refers to "the bad deals" like TPP and NAFTA. He waved the sword of protectionism in the form of a Border Tax. Only Congress could initiate a Border Tax, and even with a Republican majority, the chances of that happening are slim to none.
The issue of Trump's Populism is one of amnesia. Obama was a populist president. Obama legislated and appointed judges that would continue his populist objectives.
Trump is harnessing populism but also reminding America that its time to lead again.
I don't see Rex Tillerson (a man that made his fortune from a global energy business) telling other nations we are closing the doors. On the contrary, as observed by some of the commentators in the first 30-days, Trump has handed out more carrots than resorting to the stick with international manufacturers.
Trump's return to Law and Order at home, securing the borders, enforcing immigration and punishing bad hombres is a return to normalcy. International business will probably flourish. Strangely enough
Mexico has performed well since Trump became Pres.

America as the producer will not necessarily detract from  America as the consumer.
In closing I would have to say that we dodged a bullet with Hillary. 28-years since Reagan is enough for me to realize how far down the rabbit hole America has gone. Hillary would have been a sledge-hammer to that final nail in our coffin.

The floor is open to debate