Thursday, February 9, 2012

- A Few Minutes With Jonah Goldberg



You know him, you love him. He's one of the wise-cracking standard bearers of the intellectual right and the founder of NR online. Jonah Goldberg is always worth listening to, but I particularly enjoyed his description of Charles Murray's work because it so accurately maps to my personal experience.

But listen to the whole thing... you won't regret it.

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

- One For The Annals....

... of half baked and idiotic ideas.



Only the left could conceive of such a dim witted idea. Only the left could somehow convince themselves that this kind of shameless confiscation of wealth would somehow lead to greater 'fairness'. Its yet another 'teacher's lounge' discussion given credence in the pages of The New York Times as if the consequences of it were somehow uncertain. Really - this is evidence of something that I've maintained for ages. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but some opinions are simply stupider than others. This would be one of those.

I've been feeling frustration lately. There are so many liberals out there who continue in their determination to ignore the real world. Instead, they want to build a new world where acts have been detached from their consequences. Where 'fairness' isn't based on merit, but on political connections. And the surest way to have yourself declared a villain, is to succeed. This really just takes the cake though.

Worst of all was watching Squawk box this morning and the palpable glee that devout leftists Andrew Ross Sorkin demonstrated while he raised the issue. He used the "Jon Stewart" defense ("I'm just asking the question here.") but it was impossible for him to hide his delight at the possibility of looting cash from the rich even before the rich actually called it their own.

That's what CNBC calls serious business news.

My wife and I watched him this AM and shook our heads. Eventually she said that the fountainhead idea is probably right. Just burn it all to the ground and eliminate the host to their parasite. Then when they're back under control simply start from scratch. Today I feel like she has a point.


The New York Times praises "The Zuckerberg Tax" designed to tax unrealized capital gains.

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

- Obama's Bizarro World Continues...



The OWS crowd attacked policemen, looted Oakland city hall, halted traffic at one of the world's largest ports and has made numerous public statements about their plans to launch widespread illegal activity to disrupt the lives of peaceful citizens.

Meanwhile the Tea Party cleaned up their own garbage.

So who do we imagine is the real threat to America?

Obama's (and Eric holder's) FBI says its... wait for it......you know it's going to be a surprise.....

Saturday, February 4, 2012

- The Case For More QE



QE (quantitative easing) does not cause inflation. This is a fact. We’ve had a ton of QE ourselves - over a trillion dollars worth, and inflation continues to be quite low. The Japanese have had two decades of QE, with little or no inflation to speak of in any of that time. So it’s a hard and fast fact that QE does not cause inflation. We need economic growth to get real inflation, and until we get it we won’t see any, QE or no QE.

But what QE does do is make the onset of inflation much more likely. And when that inflation does begin, its rate of increase will be much higher than it would be with a smaller monetary base. Inflation comes like Hamlet’s sorrow, “not in single spies but in battalions”. It always arrives suddenly, and increases rapidly. And with a larger monetary base, it will go from 2% to 10% in the time it might have taken to go from 2% to 3%. This is what makes QE so dangerous.

How high the level of inflation will rise will be a function of how we react when it first pokes up its head. If the first signs of inflation are greeted with aggressive increases in interest rates, then it’s possible to not have runaway inflation at all – no matter what your monetary base. But raising rates is tough politically, and raising them a lot is even tougher. So with lots of QE around, it’s likely that we’ll end up with more inflation than we like, simply because we can’t do what we must, even if we know we have to.

In spite of what you may hear in the more populist circles, Ben Bernanke is not stupid. He’s not trying to destroy America. I don’t believe he’s after any more power than he currently has or that he cares about using his position to increase his personal wealth. At least – there is nothing in his behavior that would lead a rational man to believe so. But what I think he really wants is what many men in his position want. I think he wants to be the hero. I think he wants to be the guy who saved America from the “second great depression.” I think he’s worried about his intellectual legacy.

You may not like this, but with the way our system is currently designed, that’s exactly what he’s supposed to be worried about. His vanity is supposed to drive him toward making the right decision for the good of the country, even if it’s politically unpopular. Our political system has a very short term (one election) view. But the Fed is independent in order to encourage the chairman and the board to do what they know what’s right in spite of that. The current system is designed to encourage them to remain above the political fray and to do what history will most revere them for.

In that context, I think Bernanke is doing OK. There is a perfectly valid intellectual debate about what specifically he’s doing, and opinions will differ. But I don’t think there is anyone out there who understands the process, who believes that he’s that far out of line. He’s taking what amounts to the conventional economic wisdom – right or wrong – and doing his best to implement a plan which reflects that. Men fail all the time. But I don't think you can reasonably make the argument that he isn't trying his best.

We’ve seen a big uptick in payroll numbers – a substantial portion of which is a result of technical adjustments to the number. Bernanke knows that as well as anyone, so I don’t think the current ‘good news’ about unemployment will change his plans much. I think we will continue to see more QE – and that economic growth will be mitigated by increased input costs. This will keep the overall growth level low. That may sound bad, or at least worse than rapid growth. But it has the upside of preventing the fiscal bankruptcy of the nation that would come from rapidly increased interest cost.

In effect, I think QE with all its negative consequences, is really just buying us time. In the autumn we will likely get a more responsible congress and a change of administrations in the Whitehouse. We can then begin to dismantle some of the bureaucratic cholesterol that’s clogging the nation’s economic veins and putting the country on a more fiscally sustainable path. Until then, QE will keep the patient alive. It’s like an artificially induced coma, designed to give us enough time to heal. It’s dangerous, but I think it’s less dangerous than the alternative.

- The Forgotten Man



A compelling painting by Utah artist Jon McNaughton.

I particularly like the way the Roosevelt's, Clinton, and Wilson are all depicted applauding the way Obama is trampling the constitution (with Wilson skulking behind them) while the more 'conservative' presidents are equally upset by it.