- Two Lions Fight Over One Antelope

I guess it’s no stretch to say that I see the Republican victory in NJ a little differently than most others. Chris Christie is a machine Republican who will be friendly to continuing the current distribution of government benefits in Trenton. And at present, most of the benefits of government spending go directly to those running and working for, the government.

If the people in government (1 voter in 9 in NJ not counting teachers) had gotten the idea that Christie would be standing up for the tax payer instead of them, then they would have turned out to the polls in droves. That would have given him a 16% disadvantage at the outset, and even against a wildly unpopular candidate like Corzine, he almost certainly would have lost. But instead, Christie made it clear that he has no plans to really change things in Trenton at all. He spoke in the broadest generalities but no specifics. And that gave them the confidence to believe that they had 2 candidates on their side, the same as always in NJ.

The Election in NJ was two lions fighting over an antelope. And whichever one wins, it’s tough to call it a victory for the antelope.

Does that mean I think Christie will be as bad for the state as another Corzine term would have been? No, I don’t think so. But the fact of the matter is the system is so deeply broken in NJ that it’s outside the power of any governor to fix. Much of the taxes we pay are as a result of mandates set by the State Supreme Court, and the unions reap the benefits. They won’t allow any bill to be brought up that might change any of that. For 99% of the issues, the Christie administration will be more of the same old thing for NJ’s taxpayers.

What’s more, it’s about to get much worse. The population continues to drop but it isn’t people in government moving out of the state. The businesses and individuals who generate the taxes are the ones leaving. The tax base is shrinking but the burdens on them are not. The cost to each taxpayer will almost certainly continue to increase. So too will the pension liabilities for public employees, and the degree of mismanagement of the state and local finances. Eventually it will become too much of a crisis to ignore, but not yet. Since Corzine was from the party doing the most direct damage, he probably would have made it worse. But even though Christie is a Republican, the most we can hope for from him is that he keeps kicking the can down the alley for 4 more years.

So am I pleased? Sure. Am I looking at the event as a game changing moment? No. In NJ the lions will continue to fight, and I, and the rest of the private sector, will continue to be the Antelopes. And with a future like that it's hard for me to celebrate.