Friday, June 4, 2010

- The Employment Number



Only 40K private sector jobs created, and the markets are horrified. This means that if it weren't for the census workers we would have had a big negative employment number this month and the unemployment rate would be higher. The president just said the exact opposite in a speech, but it's no shocker to hear a politician lie so specifically about the facts... especially this one, who understands so little about how any of this stuff works. I'd have been more surprised if he told the truth about it.

The truth is, that's an unfortunate data point, and we haven't seen anything like that in recent past recessions so how could that be happening this time?

Well we have an administration which has simultaneously declared war on the finance, medical, and energy industries, and has artificially propped up the auto industry. If you didn't foresee unfortunate outcomes as in BP, you'll be charged criminally by the attorney general. If you did foresee those outcomes and profited by them you'll be sued by the regulators as in Goldman Sachs.

Succeeding is considered wrong, as is failing. The only thing that is apparently considered right is having tons of political capital and a deeply embedded labor union. So if that's your business model then go ahead and hire big (provided you can find a way to pay you for all that hiring).

Otherwise not so much.

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