Friday, July 15, 2011

- The Central Delusion


Obama believes that 80% of Americans want higher taxes.

So that settles it. It's not that Obama is trying to destroy America, it's that he really is a true believer. He has been so sheltered from real life (like most academics) that he truly believes that the only reason we don't have socialism already is because of the efforts of evil capitalists and their lobbyists.

I hope the Republican side of the table is less delusional.

4 comments:

DefJon said...

D you know any actual, outright socialists? Don't you think actual socialists would know one of their own based on 3 years of politics, policies, and rhetoric?

You seem like an intelligent guy. Socialism is not raising tax rates on the rich by 3%. If so, Ronald Reagan should be considered a socialist.

Polls consistently show that the majority of people favor raising taxes on the top 10%. Not on the middle class and poor folks.

Tom said...

Its always fun when someone posts my stuff on a leftist site. For a few days we get a bunch of kids popping by to make the same old tired arguments and run through the leftists semantic song and dance. I sometimes wonder if there has been an original idea on the left since the 30's. - I certainly haven't seen any.

Central to the entire leftist argument is the idea that if a 51% vote to pick the pockets of 49% then it's perfectly OK to do so. They give absolutely no consideration to the costs of that decision, or to the benefits of not doing. It's never about comparing cost and benefit because in the leftwist worldview, one person gets the benefit and a completely different person is forced (at the point fo a gun) to pay the costs.

There is no chess on the left, only checkers. The same old simplistic moves, retried over and over again for the twelve thousandth time. Only this time (they once again say) it will be different.

I wish you kids would go open a history book every once in a while. All this crap you are advocating has been tried countless times already and it NEVER works.

frithguild said...

Yellow Sheeted

Handling cases through trial can be alot like passing legislation. You try to achieve a result, given the factual parameters before you, while appealing to the good sense of the public. You lose touch with their reality, as you obsess over the details. Much like falling in love with a trading stock, you get big pain, if you fall in love with your case. Every case has a "settlement value," which roughly approximates what a jury would do. Settlement is really a function of risk tolerance.

25 years ago, when I started in the lawyer business, the most questionable auto neck and back cases were worth about $3,000 - 1 for the Plaintiff, 1 for the doctor and 1 for the Lawyer. Every lawyer has drawers full of those files. Settling cost less than trial. Then we got mandatory arbitration, which the Court saw to was administered by lawyers. Amazingly, settlement value changed overnight from $3,000 to $7,500. The courthouses were filled with lawyers and, for the consuming public, a little dinky fender bender got you something nice. Following all that, you got a bunch of tort reform legislation, which made low level cases more difficult. But settlement values never really changed - typical for a regulatory intervention. There were alot of lawyers around, with big confidence and who "believed" in their cases and their ability to get big results. Courthouses were full of them.

Something happened about 15 years ago. Allstate decided enough was enough, so they attacked the root of the problem - an artificial market. They tried case after case, using their own employees who never left the courthouse - they just went from case to case. They got really good at saying “No,” and even better at appealing to a jury. Allstate took the hickey and paid it, if a jury gave the Plaintiff more than the policy limit. This was unthinkable to other carriers. Allstate got really, really good at picking cases to "take to the public."

Allstate made it simple. They put a sheet of yellow paper on the top of the file, when they picked it to try. At first, all the other lawyers, Plaintiff and Defense alike, and especially the Judges, berated, threatened, cried and carried on. After a little time passed, when all the lawyers trudged into the Judge's Chambers for a settlement conference, there would be just one question - "Is it yellow sheeted?" If yes, everybody would drop their head a bit and then leave, without the histrionics. Much later, the Allstate lawyers just told the Court which files were Yellow Sheeted. No more useless conferences. Other insurance carriers eventually caught on, when "Yellow Sheeting" became almost a trademark.

A funny thing happened to the settlement value market. Juries began to give no money on case after case, and small money on the rest. Only the best lawyers got decent sized verdicts. A neck and back case that was once worth $75,000 to $90,000 today is worth $17,500 to $25,000 - just about what they were worth 25 years ago. Auto negligence as shrunk as a practice area - dramatically. The lawyers who "believed" in their cases are gone. The Courthouses are near empty, and populated by only the very good lawyers with 20 years or more on the job, and no young lawyers. But the truly injured get what is due to them.

You see, juries know a lot more than they are ever given credit for. Settlement values filter over to them. I have seen too many coincidences to think otherwise. They ordinarily do the right thing, despite the lawyers. Never underestimate them.

The Class of 2010, I hope, knows the Allstate lesson. Do not negotiate. Take the hickey on occasion. Do listen to the naysayers – even those on your own side. It gets easier. Others will follow. The "settlement value" for government spending will decrease drastically. "Yellow Sheet" them.

Tom said...

Exceptionally well told story Frithguild, thanks. As I'm sure you can imagine, I hope you're right.