- The Primacy Of Pillow Fights Over Artillery

There is really only one question left for the Euro. Will European leaders ignore their own laws to maintain their power?

It won’t be as dramatic as the Reichstag fire, or the direct suspension of a national parliament. The forms of European democracy will continue to be observed. But it will be a toothless thing; a fiction preserved only to keep the plebs from erupting. The last bit of power retained by the people to influence their own government, will have to be stripped away if the Euro is to be preserved as is.

The problem, as I’ve said before, is that there isn’t enough time for Europe’s political system to change the law which would allow their leaders to legally save the Euro. It can be done – easily. The ECB can monetize the “in crisis” debt of Europe. But if they do it, then they are breaking the law as it currently stands. They are saying that this ‘emergency’ gives them the power to usurp the Democratic institutions responsible for making such an act legal.

We’ve heard that sort of thing before in Europe so they may do it. “Never let a crisis go to waste”, a would be tyrant once said. And if they just break that law, then the Euro can stay in place. But then they have to enforce the new agreement. And that may be another story entirely.

Europe’s political leaders have no Army to speak of. They cannot force anyone to actually do anything. They can strong arm a negotiation. But the only way that any agreement would ever be honored by both parties is if both parties consent. And if the Democratic institutions of Europe are usurped, the chance of any agreement standing the test of time, falls to zero.

Imagine the Germans say “We will allow the ECB to bail out Italy, but only if we get some central control of Italian fiscal policy. The Italians respond by saying “yes yes, of course we agree! We’re happy to have the ECB help us navigate such dangerous fiscal waters.” Then in a year, the public service unions make a demand that seems reasonable to the Italian government but unreasonable to the ECB. The choice for the political leader in charge of Italy will be to honor the ECB treaty and cope with the union riots or break the treaty and spend the money to placate the unions. How will something like that turn out I wonder?

The central conceit of the European model was flawlessly expressed last May by Angela Merkel but I missed it when she originally said it. It was just as well. Her comment has hung in my mind like a big dark cloud ever since. Her money quote was this:

“We must re-establish the primacy of politics over the market.”

This is a breathtakingly delusional statement for a world leader to make in public. Imagine she said: “We must re-establish the primacy of levitation over gravity” or “We must re-establish the primacy of pillow fights over artillery.” Either would have as much relevance or accuracy. And since she emerged from her insulating bubble last May to say those stupefying words, the rational universe has continued to give her its obvious response:

“Establish whatever you damned well please Angela, but the world will continue to spin on its axis, whether you vote for it to do otherwise, or not!”

Ms Merkel and her co-elites seem to believe that the universe can be fully contolled simply by passing a few laws. But the markets are a dynamic mechanism like the weather. No private actor can control them and no public actor can control them for long. In other words, you can’t be unworthy of public trust and mandate that trust through political action. At least not without using force.

If that’s what Angela plans – then she’s right. She can re-establish the primacy of politics over every demand thing she likes. That’s what politics is after all – it’s our mechanism for forcing people to do something they don’t want to do. And marching your Army into another country can establish an awful lot of primacy. That’s the end game of all politics – even Democratic politics. In the end, 51% send guys with guns into the homes of 49% and at that point (and not before) the 49% shut up and do exactly what they’re told.

But I don’t see that happening in this case. Mostly because the only Army that is protecting Europe at the moment are all wearing American or British uniforms. And they don’t give a hoot about Angela Merkel and her faux political primacy.

Without that threat – without the threat of violence, there is no way to force anyone to do anything. And that means the drama around the Euro is just more of the same empty theatrics. Under those circumstances there will be no way to save it… only stall its funeral.