Friday, January 13, 2012

- What I'm Thinking About Today...

I'm traveling home today, so instead of writing a long rambling blog post about how much more dovish the new Fed is I will have anxiety about getting lost, being late, and the long desperate search for a gas station to fill the rental car tank, somewhere near the airport. But a theme has popped into my head that I'm anxious to write something about.

Obama and other progressives want to reinvent how the world works, but they can't. People are very little more than the product of their decisions, no matter if powerful people want it to be otherwise or not. You really can't make a sow's ear into a silk purse. And Obama and his fellow travelers can't make men of poor character into champions.

That is... someone else can't change you, but you very much can change yourself. You can decide to do things differently, and in the process either prove your character or provide evidence of your lack of it. The government can't make winners into losers and losers into winners, but we can each do it for ourselves. In a sense... what I'm thinking is that you really can't keep a good man down.

If you are someone who has made mistakes (as we all certainly have) but have recently made the decision to change the way you do things, this has been a very frustrating time. Thanks to the hopey-changey way the rules have been redefined, there hasn't been as much of a payoff for you as there normally would be. But I'm increasingly convinced that we're entering a time where doing the "right thing" will be rewarded again - not punished. So have faith my friends. I truly believe that the dawn approach-eth.

All this week I've been making the argument that the economy will improve more than the aggregate economic statistics indicate, as a function of the falling political risk. In other words, I believe that as Obama's re-election looks less secure, the penalty currently suppressing the future value of risk taking will fall, increasing it's appeal. Risk takers will begin to take chances and hire people, but since they'll be doing it in the industries that have been most negatively effected by Team Obama's "brave new world', it will have more of an effect on aggregate statistics than we all expect. We won't be on a rocket to the moon, but we will decisively pick ourselves up off the mat.

All of this will take time to analyze and report of course. Don't expect it all to make headlines until well after the end of Obama's ("Insha'Allah" only) term. But I think if you look at your life instead of the newspaper you'll see increased optimism, and the people you know will be doing marginally better.

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