I'm acquainted with Arthur Herman, noted author and part time columnist. He's a clever man with a deep knowledge of history. And at this frozen moment int time, he has a view of the broader world which is not too dissimilar to time.
I'm not saying there aren't HUGE problems out there, but I am encouraged by what I see. I think we've survived Obama - and all we really need to at least get back on the right path, is a vision for America that doesn't lead to the abyss. The road has bumps and holes so large they could fairly be called the end of one road and the beginning of another. Our pain is afar from over. But we have a long term future, and Europe probably does not.
I've said that the Euro-crats will do whatever they can to preserve the power structure. To those of us in the business, this is what's called a "Short Vol" trade. It means they'll keep jamming the cork in the bottle however much energy it takes. But one day the pressure will be so great that the bottle will just explode. That's Europe's future. The longer it goes with the cork in the bottle, the greater the odds that it all ends in violence and bloodshed.
I'd already call it a certainty - it's just a question of when.
But for my money, I think that "when" moment is still a very long way off.
9 comments:
tom.. i told a friend not too long ago just like astronauts returning from space when they need to hit a "window" to get back. to shallow they skip and its see ya later boys. to steep and its shrimp on the barbie.we have a window fast approaching.. its gonna be one of the three.its a small window and the odds its poof. but there is a window.from my perspective of helping to manage 55 mil in pension funds if i see that window getting bigger i can tell you we will go from 60/40 to 80/20 our max allowed.and itl be banks., and that BAD oil and materials and construction and dam near everything that made this country great. ill be SHORT LAWYERS as my pair trade
tom you live or have lived in the big financial world .. i hear the fear mongers all day long saying how the morgan stanleys and goldies etc will get their lunch handed to em if europe hiccups.. i agree if its amageddon but in your scenerio wheres years of bandaids are applied do you think our large financial instituions manuever around it and maybe even pick off good assets in the turmoil?
The big banks have so many institutionalized advantages now that I can't imagine any way they could "lose money". That sounds mostly like wishful thinking and envy to me.
After a big collapse the risk is always over-valued. My first boss in research at JPMorgan paid for his house by selling options after the 87 and 89 crashes.
Right now, people are still over-valuing the risks.
thanx.. i really jus want the short lawyer trade to work.ive waited my whole adult life for that one to have a chance. and short the tree huggers and short al gores global warming .and he epa and and and
The one thing that concerns me is that recessions are supposed to be the time when "know it all" liberals realize that top down doesn't work. It's supposed to be when they realize that saying an energy choice is 'economical' doesn't mean that it serves the purposes of the one who makes it (evil oil companies) but the ones who use it.
But I don't see that this time. And I think that's because last time, we had Milton Friedman who not only had the right idea, but had a position and an eminence which they (liberals of the day) couldn't dismiss. These days they have useless Krugman, and a bunch of people that they refuse to listen to.
That refusal and dismissal might be the very thing the radicals need. they don't have to teach people what they mean persuasively, they only have to teach them to ignore everyone else. and no one is going to ever be able to teach the occupy crowd anything.
well said. im still waiting for a repub to actually fire back bout trickle down crap not working. as far as i know everytime we have decreased the tax burden on society actual revenues to the treasury have increased. the problem has been that then congress has spent it nd more.and the imp.i have nothing against short people even tho there is a song that says they have no reason for living.but when you take a vertically challenged person and give them a nobel prize or make em deans of libtard colleges(reich) they become intolerable.
perfect timing - Bill Bradley says during the election season "we" shouldn't talk about money, but bi-partisanship. and the immediately starts talking about taxing the life out of everything!?!!?
Bill Bradley is a pretentious tool. If he ever had an original idea it would die of loneliness.
sad. but i have to agree.. hes from my hometown of crystal city mo... i was 6 when he took the hs team to state.. thats all we have in common. his dad owned the only bank in town.. i think hes smart but it ends there
Post a Comment