Tuesday, May 1, 2012

- Stupider Than They Think

This is an interesting essay on how stupid people are.

I'm down with that. I think most people are not only stupid but they're much stupider than they believe. Wanna know how I can tell? Ask anyone how smart they are and you'll get responses which range from 'much smarter than average' at the high end to "about average" at the low end.

Obviously, when your intelligence dips, self assessment of that intelligence is the first thing to go. Some of those "about average" people are clearly below average - most people see that coming. But what's probably more important in the grand scheme of things, is that many of those "above average" people aren't actually above average at all.

"Enlightenment" is the key. If you believe yourself to possess some secret human truth that's been hidden from the global population since all of pre-history but has now finally arrived in your mind, then you are probably one of the people who isn't quite as smart as you think you are. Human nature has been mostly defined for centuries at least; probably more like millenniums. If you believe that you are so rare a creature that you can think of a fundamental human truth that never occurred to Newton, Archimedes, Descartes, Plato or Einstein, then you are probably as delusional as the worst of the "about average" people.

There is an adage in my business that "everything has been thought of". It's not exactly true, but pretty close. The thought is that there are no truly new ideas - or at least not enough of them that you can make a living bringing them to light. Even adding one new tiny brick to the vast pyramid built of others knowledge is exceedingly rare.

I'm a little smarter than the average bear myself and I've invested the bulk of my life trying to think up something new. To my knowledge, in over 20 years of trying I've only managed to come up with one original idea, and for all I know there are 100 people out there who thought of it too. That is - I only thought of one thing which also turned out to be true. Everything else had either been done a million times by others (meaning there was very little meat left on the bone for me) or turned out to not accurately reflect reality.

That last part is the key to the reliable failure of liberal 'enlightenment", it simply doesn't reflect reality. It doesn't stand up to objective verification. Unilateral disarmament doesn't lead to peace. Redistribution of wealth doesn't lead to prosperity. High taxes don't incentivize wealth creation, and labor unions don't add economic value. But don't try telling that to a liberal. To them, challenging their demonstrably stupid ideas is a recipe for anger. They see themselves as being more enlightened than you, and if you challenge their ideas you're challenging their superiority. Their ego's can't handle that.

Anyway, if liberals were genuinely stupid then I think there would be fewer problems in the world, but they aren't. Most of them are actually "about average" but think of themselves as "above average". They are just barely smart enough to come up with rationalizations that justify their lack of "actual" success in spite of their (inaccurately self assessed) superior intelligence.

The most over self-estimated liberals imagine conspiracies. It's "the man" or "the patriarchy" that is keeping them down. The next up moralize it away. They would never "concern themselves with such base issues as profit" when there is a "higher truth" to be found. And the smartest but still vastly over self-estimated do both. "The entire system is based on greed and exploitation and should be dismantled from the ground up."

These last ones are the group we're hearing from every Mayday, and at every "Occupy Wall Street" protest. They are the ones that define the message of the far left. They are all people that are within .5 STD of the mean intelligence, but believe themselves to be the only ones who have discovered a new human truth. It's nothing but vanity, and envy, and stupidity masking itself as wit and enlightenment.

How easy life would be for all of us if they had the emotional strength to face their own self delusions.

9 comments:

ikaika said...

Reminds me of Paul Krugman.
His pals gave him a Nobel Prize.
He doesn't do anything. He writes a Blog that criticizes the Fed and Conservative ideas.

He doesn't do anything.

He has no more value to add to an argument than say a theater student that writes a daily film blog.

A former Pro football player once told me about sports writers and commentators... "Name One that ever played organized ball..."

It didn't matter to him what these clowns said, he was going to smash helmets the following Sunday regardless of opinion.

But Krugman has validity since he has a Prize and a Blog. Bernanke did bitch-slap him publically by identifying as I did: He doesn't do anything.
His contribution is criticism.

Which brings me to today's gem from Krugman:

"The reckless thing is to allow mass unemployment to continue"

He is directing this at the Fed, not his beloved Obama Admin, not his beloved Liberal congress critters, but the Fed.

Is the Fed hiring?

chess said...

tom you are on a roll. you sorta touched on this once before when you mentioned a guy that does work for you. not very sharp--you had to tell him exactly what to do --- but then worked his ass off. that guy looks in the mirror every am and sees himself exactly as he is. he then is bettter than the average because he willing to work his ass off.i call em grunts. im proud to be one. give me a gob of those peeps rahter than one idiot who looks in mirror and sees einstein

Tom said...

The Fed will be hiring very soon.

When Romney get's elected Ben B will be the first one shown to the door. It's unfair in my opinion, I don't think he's done a terrible job excluding the TARP thing, and I think his role in that can be forgiven. But it's a politicized position now so that's how it goes.

In my world - the Macro hedge fund world - handicapping the next Fed Chairman has already become big sport. I know of at least one fund that has a pool going.

Fisher is a popular choice - but he's a lightning rod. I think they'll go (it will be a group decisions surely) with someone from industry if they can find a person whose qualified. If they go to Academia, then it will be hard core Freidman devotee (if they can find one).

MF may no longer be with us, but he still has the kind of respect that Romney will want.

Tom said...

I know the guy you mean Chess. I think of him often when the topic comes up.

There is more than a little irony present when I write about stuff like this. I am afterall very much an intelligence snob. 90% of the people I know are geniuses and when I worked at Caxton, even the girl who answered the phone had an IQ of 130.

But I think it's important for me to be clear that what I have is not an issue with assessments of intelligence, but "self assessment". Liberals always think more of their own intelligence than others do.

Does anyone think Rosie O'Donnell is smart? Joy Behar? Alec Baldwin? they may think Bill Maher is clever of funny but does anyone believe for a minute that he's the guy to ask if you need to define some government policy? He's really nothing but a clown. But he thinks he's a William F. Buckley for the left.

Meanwhile conservatives I know are more likely to be humble about their intelligence, primarily because they can afford to be. They have much less to prove to people.

Lots of people I know think themselves as being only slightly brighter than average, but when others assess their intelligence they see them as giving Descartes a run for his money. No one feels that way about a liberal because the liberal always thinks of themselves as being the next Archimedes.

chess said...

once again well said and concise...i have 13 yrs of freakin school after hs... quit bein a doc at 50... and always jus thought of myself as a grunt....the problem is that alot of folks out there do think maddow,rosie.baldwin and rest of em are bright.that scares me..this latest political jockying with the clintons is sad.. anyone i know would have said get osama....does odumass take credit for the whoole seal team that went down??? 26 of em? its may 1 and hes set the bar so low its frightening.....gonna get ugly...mitt needs to talk the economy. and 30 yo's movin back into their parents house.

Keith said...

Tom, one of the best blogs you have written. Liberals know how best to spend your money, how to regulate your guns, and run your life. My feeling is that there are a lot of us clumped together on intelligence, but the difference is some of us shut the hell up better than others. Your life is not mine to rule. Liberals don't feel that way.

chess said...

Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.
Mark Twain

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/m/mark_twain.html

Don't go around saying the world owes you a living. The world owes you nothing. It was here first

God made the Idiot for practice, and then He made the School Board

Reader, suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself.

tom you make me better by making me search for stuff

chess said...

and the 5 good looking dudes arrested in cleveland.... post life abortion.poof...prison for 25 yrs at 45k a yr times 5.... why?

chess said...

and the 5 good looking dudes arrested in cleveland.... post life abortion.poof...prison for 25 yrs at 45k a yr times 5.... why?