Wednesday, June 20, 2012

- On The Bleachers




This quizzical AP piece caught my attention day before last because one reporter echoing the story changed “full speed” quote to “ramming speed.” So I got to think about one of my favorite pictures of all time – the Deathmobile emerging from the multicolor smoke bombs. The AP piece is sinking beneath the news flow sediment, except for an interview with the articulate and left thinking Gerry Connolly. These show a glimpse of the general shape of the administration spin and media coverage that will follow when the Supreme Court cuts the commerce clause cake.   

The AP piece relies on a “leading Democrat familiar with the administration's thinking” and “a high-level Capitol Hill staffer,” who said that, in the event the Supreme Court finds the individual mandate unconstitutional, but severable, "Legislatively we can't do a thing, and we are going to move full speed ahead (with implementation)." No big deal, really. 

The reporter goes on, however, to provide some unattributed analysis on the commerce clause argument, which I think is spin originating from the sources. It casts conservatives as rigid ideologues: “Opponents say the requirement that individuals have coverage is unconstitutional, that the federal government can't tell people to obtain particular goods or services.” It then portrays statists as intelligent problem solvers: “Supporters say the mandate is a necessary component of a broader scheme to regulate health insurance, which is well within the powers of Congress. By requiring people to carry health insurance or pay a fine, the law seeks to broaden the pool of people with coverage, helping to keep premiums affordable.” The statists score first by defining the argument.

Connolly was a great choice to clarify the rest of the gibberish in the AP piece. He believes passionately that expanding the state will best serve the underserved, he understands the law and he speaks well. He concludes, as have I, that Obamacare cannot stand in its entirety without the individual mandate.  He is poised to say that if the Court finds no constitutional power to compel the purchase of insurance, “One of the most partisan courts we’ve had since the 1930s” illegitimately “second-guess[ed] the legitimate decision made by the elected representatives of the people,” which is biggest mistake since Plessy v. Ferguson, where the Court allowed slavery and Dred Scott v. Sandford, which “actually nullified the Missouri Compromise, and it led directly to the Civil War.” He went on, “I would hope he [the President] would criticize the Supreme Court for such a radical intrusion in the constitutional role of the Congress of the United States.” I have to admit, I didn’t see the race baiting part of it coming. Hat tip to Mr. Connolly and score 2 for statists and 0 for the forces of liberty. 

I am not foolish enough to think that the media will give air to the present Romney campaign thinking about how to portray the loss of the individual mandate. We know Mr. Romney has said the entire law should be repealed, which sets up cloaking himself in a mantle of correctness. Perhaps he will say that without Obamacare, the lights will stay on at old jobs, a message that well targets battleground states. Perhaps the markets will show evidence before November that a gigantic weight on small business has been lifted. I just hope that the Romney campaign doesn’t stay on the bleachers too long, so it ends up on the ground making use of Marion Wormer’s other thumb. 

5 comments:

ikaika said...

I'm not shocked that the left equates an all encompassing mandate to provide mediocre and horrible healthcare to civil rights and defeating racism. It's all they have left.
If you don't buy this hemmorhoid medicine, you are a racist. It would explain Mr Connelly's deportment.

Tom said...

I think Romney will respond just that way, because it IS a burden.

The future is a domain of unknowns. We call them risks. The risk implied in Obamacare is the risk that the government can and will do whatever it likes to us, whether we approve it through normal channels or not. It's Nancy Pelosi deeming all kinds of things as having "passed" because it's what she feels like doing. Businesses don't know how tow work that into their estimates for future costs because it's going to be whatever she says it is.

But restrain congress, and even if there is another healthcare solution proposed, business will feel like they can take chances again because the rules of the game won't change on a whim.

I'm convinced that's why this recovery has taken so long. There are plenty of values out there for bottom fishers, balance sheets are OK, and there is plenty of capital available cheap. But if the referee is playing for the other team, you don't dare call a play.

Take away the risk of an unrestrained government, and I'm convinced we will see much greater "risk on" and stronger recovery. Maybe not vigorous, but stronger.

ikaika said...

The libertarian conservatives can't see past Romneycare

frithguild said...

I'm convinced that's why this recovery has taken so long.

There is no doubt of this in my mind - we even had a conversation at a diner where I tried to test the proposition that Obamacare decreased the velocity of money, much like what you would expect in a command and control economy. So many economists at that time were looking at past trends to explain present conditions, when to me the present did not compare well to the past.

My question is how do you get out in front politically speaking on showing Obamacare has chilled a recovery. The lights on for old jobs is a good start. To make it a better established general point, I think you need to pick a discreet data set to carry the message.

"Small business is the engine of job growth" has an established political track record. I think the 18 to 34 demographic understands that big employers are less likely to provide work than "freelance" or "consulting." So what is a discreet data set you can look to to show small business growth that corresponds to the end of Obamacare?

As Romney strategist, I would pick the data set, define the political argument and then wait for the movement in the data to bear you out.

Tom said...

I'm not sure you'll have enough time. There is a pretty substantial lag in reporting any labor data, and also a lag in the data responding to new stimuli.

I believe the market will respond, but that's a very messy dataset with lots of inputs of changing weights so ti's tough to use as a signal of something.

I would maybe try to persuade small business owners to share their 'risk management' view with their staff, or anyone else who will listen.

But at this point I think the BLS data for election day is already almost fully baked into the cake.