Monday, July 9, 2012

- The Emergency Never Ends

I have talked about how "national emergencies" led to the introduction of federal command and control schemes like the FDR era NRA and the AAA. This quote from The Burning Platform via Zero Hedge caught my eye this morning:

The Obamanistas declare we are still in an emergency and must borrow and spend to save the economy. The emergency never ends for politicians of both parties.

Jim Quinn brings us telling insight: 
·        The present labor force presently includes 142.4 million employed Americans, with 114 million working more than 35 hours per week, leaving 28.4 million working part-time.
·        In 2008, the labor force included 145 million employed Americans, but 125 million full-time workers and 20 million part-time workers.  
·        Part time workers under Bush composed 14% of the labor force and 20% under Obama. 
·        There are now 11 million less full-time workers and 8 million more part-time workers. 
·        In January 2009 there were 32 million Americans on food stamps at an annual cost of $44 billion.
·        Today  46 million Americans, 15% of the population, take SNAP benefits at an annual cost of $75 billion.   
·        People over the age of 55 have the highest labor participation rate in history and it continues to rise. 
·        Students are not considered to be unemployed. 
·        Low interest Federal government loans increased from $100 billion when Obama took office to $450 billion today. 
·        Total student loan debt now surpasses $1 trillion. 
·        Many students graduate with $25,000 in debt, with many more than $100,000 or more of debt.
·        Student loan default rates are at a ten year high. 
·        10 million receive Social Security Disability Insurance at a cost $150 billion per year, with applications now topping 250,000 per month. 
·        Once on the rolls, beneficiaries have little incentive to return to work because their disability entitles them to additional benefits such as food stamps, Medicaid, Section 8 housing, and student-loan forgiveness.
·        Less than one half of one percent of those on disability ever go back to work.
I have consistently argued that economic regulation invariably favors established interests in favor of those on the margin. Here we can see baby boomers taking the oxygen, with new college graduates on the margin. It seems we are passing the torch of our debts to those who learned the benefits of default.


Chess said...

Thus the 18-34 age group voted overwhelmingly for BHO...And will again.
Demographics say you wont see another repub president for a long lomg time,if ever in our lifetime..If we do it means the world is such shit that the hooked on government handout group is desperate for something,.We arent anywhere near that yet.. Maybe in ? 10 years.

Tom said...

Chess... you're a friend of this blog. But we get it. There is no need to tell us ... again... that you think we are toast. From now on, why don't we just leave the "WE ARE TOAST" position of your comment as 'implied'? Thanks.

Tom said...

Right now, I think the entire issue of employment revolves around assessing political risk. In any group of people, and on any issue, there are some who react first, some who are last, and most are in the middle. those in the middle tend to follow success of those who came first.

There are businesses out there right now who have plans to hire, but are holding off to see how the election plays out because it has a direct consequence to their cost structure. If Obama wins then their cost goes up in a way that gives them no return on it. If he loses, they can use that money to pay for costs that will give a return.

The people in the middle are not ready to hire yet, but will follow on a few months after the leaders take the shot.

there are seasonal issue as well, and the global market will have an impact, so none of this is linear. And public balance sheets are still a wreck. but there are some aspects of the private sector ready to begin hiring and end the cycle, so long as the Democrats lose control of the government.

frithguild said...

Interesting how this is lining up. The Court defers on the AFA and businesses defer hiring. In the event of a Republican victory, businesses begin to hire anticipating an AFA repeal. All that is left is for Congress not to screw it up - a big IF. Statistics will lag, but it makes for a no BS argument for cause and effect with the existence of the AFA and employment performance like France.

ikaika said...

While we have compounding and replicating crisis`, we will witness president Obama flail away looking for a new villain.
Right Now he is extending the Bush Tax Cuts. I shake my head with these libs... I thought the Tax Cuts were the root of all evil?
Because of the LIBOR scandal, JP Morgan is o longer a villain and mayber Axelrod will be apologizing to Jamie Dimon all the way to November.
I want to see what the Romney Rapid Response is to Obama's tax cut claims.
As I said in the other posts, Obama is not a leader and now he is promoting his predecessor's tax cuts as his own.
Stop me, but I'm thinking the Obama presidencey will be reaping political dividends for years to come.
He ran out of stuff to say, so he rephrased his entire speech.
The man couldn't lead if tried.
Please pass the veal.

ikaika said...

He is now the tax-cutter in chief...
Meanwhile Obamacare is the single largest Tax hike in the history of the USA!!!!

Reminds me of the John Kerry ad where he's windsurfing... "whichever way the wind blows..."

frithguild said...

You don't need a Weatherman to know which way the wind blows.
We need a tax cut to "prime the pump." In the meantime, the pump don't work because the vandals took the handles.