Thursday, July 5, 2012

- Turning The Corner

If you get the impression that we've turned some important corner recently, then you and I are probably on the same page. For months Frithguild has been talking about how important the Obamacare finding would be for the future of the country - both in these pages and in person. He was right. The actual ruling wasn't what anyone expected, but I think it's a distinction without a difference.

Justice Roberts has tried to push all this back on our Democratic decision making institutions. But with as much of a third of our country being taught to believe in rainbows and unicorns, it's hard to have much faith in those institutions. They certainly haven't been reliable up to now. So in effect, Robert's choice hasn't done anything as much as it's elevated the importance of being able to tell lies. That's all most politicians do really. They tell lies that indulge the vanity and self importance of enough voters to get elected. It's their stock in trade.

This is really why it takes a virtuous people to be worthy of self government. We must have the courage to dismiss those lies we're told that sound wonderful but which we know aren't really possible. Unfortunately, we stopped being a virtuous people a long time ago. I say that not as someone who is holding others up to his own moral standard - I don't think my own moral standard is particularly high. I say that as someone who is casting a cold eye at our public policy decisions and watching the inevitable economic consequences of them. If we make decision that lead to our demise, then we cannot be a moral people any longer. A decision to have just a little more heroin is never a moral one. And that's all we seem to be able to manage anymore.

If you believe the congress really will undo Obamacare that's great, but at this point it will no longer solve the real problem. At this point Obamacare is only the most serious symptom of a disease which will inevitably be fatal. And that disease has been all but permanently codified into our laws. At this point we would need a constitutional amendment to undo the damage of the Obamacare decision. And although I'm no expert, that seems like a distant and extremely unlikely possibility. It would require a self discipline and moral courage that we no longer posses, and that much of our electorate has never even imagined might be possible.

So. What do we do? Well a country like this won't collapse at once. It will do so in dribs and drabs like rust or rot. Some places will go faster than others. Some places will seem to be working fine for a good long time. Over the last three years I've invested a lot of time and energy in studying how governments like ours fail, and I'll have much more to say on it going forward. But it will be the government which fails, not the country. A nuclear bunker full of canned goods and bullets won't help you. The best way to survive any gunfight is to be somewhere else when it happens. I'll have much more on this in coming weeks.

The graphic above is of George Bush and Dick Cheney, but it points to a fundamental rule of government that we've forgotten, so it could be any two politicians. The rule I mean is that the best we can ever hope for from these people is incompetence - so we should keep government small to limit the damage they can do. Instead though, we've wandered into the area of 'fantasy' where we believe government can solve all sorts of problems for all sorts of people, so long as it can force enough people to do what it thinks is best for them.

That fantasy has become the law of the land now, and will inevitably be the demise of our government. A constitutional amendment could cure it, but I don't believe we're capable of that. In that way, Justice Robert's decision is not his own but is really symptomatic of our broader culture. So now we really must 'manage our decline', because our inevitable decline has been all but assured.

28 comments:

Chess said...

Tom...You have turned decidely dark in the past several blogs.. I have thought we are TOAST for quite awhile.. I usually tell a friend its "rocks and hard places". We have worked our way into a place that no matter what I can explain it with rocks and hard places..Thats not a good thing.

Simple enough--- the next recession if we stimulate with spending the deficit goes up more(rock)..If we dont we stay down there for a long long time and its just muddling crap(hard place).. And you can do the same thinking for entitlements and big little government etc. etc.etc...
I still want to think we have a small hope this November but I think that is slipping away..People keep saying we arent Japan but we saw this S/P level 13 yrs ago.. We are not as bad as Japan but you get my point. The Nekkei went from 40000 to 9000. If we follow that then the Dow is heading for 4000..Then we are past TOAST

ikaika said...

If and only if we get a majority in the Senate with a new POTUS and maintaining the House, a Constituional Amendment is not a pipe-dream.

What I dread is "four more years" and a dealock between House and Senate. That would yield another four years of executive orders, czars and a America collapsing and morphing into a something Ira Levin warned us about.

Tom said...

At the risk of sounding too much like chess, that would probably be a blessing at this point. Euthanasia. A quick death. If we don't endure it then our kids will have to.

We can't even 'not pass' an economically suicidal healthcare nationalization. (or at least not 'deem it as having passed'.) I think a constitutional amendment is a pipe dream.

And in the end, there will be no more credit worthy governments, but that lack of credit worthiness will not stop them. they will fund their spending through force at first, and theft afterward. that's the unavoidable part now I think, and it's what we want. Maybe not you or I, but enough of us want that to make it happen.

chess said...

Ok you two....Now I am splicing the electrical cord to the lamp so i can do an at home ECT treatment..Itl look something like the bad execution from The Green Mile...
Ikaika I agree with dread of fomo....It gets so bad that BHO tosses out exec orders every day.

TOM !!!!!! Snap out of it!!!!! Dammit I look up to you for hope....Though as I have said before Id take the war now so at least I can help.
I will leave money to five girls when I go but how much will actually get to them is anybody's guess. I doubt much .I think most wealth transfer will be seized under some dam exec something..I think alot of estate planning will be useless for the future....So bring it on. I want to be here when it goes to hell so that your kids see something is worth a real fight...thats where you all have to stand up and carry the torch.

Tom said...

I'm still very hopeful for anyone who can see the facts and react rationally to them. There is no cliff to go off here.

But those people who believe that their government and union pensions will be fine or that believe that getting government involved in things will help, and then act on that belief, or that believe their savings or liquid assets will be safe and protected, I'm much less hopeful for.

Fret not my man. It's only the sunrise.

Chess said...

Thank God...The labrador was wondering why I was wetting down my head...

The problem is what you said a little earlier. "They" have finally reached a point where they outnumber us. Demographics are going against us at an increasing pace. Those are just the facts.If that group comes over to our side then things will have gotten really bad..Facts...

Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."
--John Adams

ikaika said...

I'm surprized gold hasn't hit 2k yet on the heels of Obamacare passing and now China and the ECB cutting rates.
Easy mony ain't free money, it's cheapened money.
Like replacing the leather in your dad's Fleetwood with naugahide.
Dad would be pissed. I'm glad he isn't alive to see this mess.

Call me a dreamer, but if the Repukes can run the table in November - a lot of stuff can happen to counter the error of SCOTUS.

Chess said...

Ikaika you are too funny..???Naugahide?????I grew up next to a family where that was on every piece of furniture... I think it has the same half life as plutonium.

frithguild said...

I will be looking forward to everybody's thoughts on this theme as we move forward here at RFNJ. I am kind of echoing it in my blue eagle piece. I will be going from the 30's back to the founding, to show how grotesque federal power had become due to errors by the Supreme Court.

We cannot look to SCOTUS to correct their errors. They are constrained by stare decisis, so the king can do no wrong. The only hope is if there were a coup of originalists, who recognized that, if the constitution is a living document, it develops cancerous growths, such as decisions based upon emanations and penumbras, that must be surgically removed.

God help us, if we convene a constitutional convention. I have no faith in anyone in the modern era to to acheive what the founders did. We will get something like the EU.

What we need is something like a virus scan, quarrantine of all federal powers that are not specifically enumerated and a constitutional reboot. I don't know how that can be done.

So I am with Tom. We will have a government managed decline. The speed will vary depending upon the frequency and magnitude of their inevitable "policy" errors.

Chess said...

Frith!!!! Guys I feel like I have infected all your lifes "hard drives"...(keep it clean folks).
Hit your symantec and scan "Chess"...You all will be more perky in 15 minutes....

Though I have to agree with that phrase " government managed decline"...SHit..

ikaika said...

You don't need a Constitutional Convention to pass an amendment. The problem lies with the States ratifying the amendment.

It would take an enormous groundswell in state legislatures to pave this road.

The Obama Tax can be defeated with a simple majority, but the damag to the constitution is done - via stare decisis. It is possible that Congress could pass a law that would limit the scope of taxation, but doubtful since no Congress Never Saw a Tax they didn't like!

A favorite phrase of mine: "The Court Erred."

chess said...

My fav phrase for this am was a guy on cnbc talking bout politicians in Europe but really everywhere...He said they know what needs to be done but dont know how to do it still get re-elected.

.As Ikaika said gold to 2k....

Hell_Is_Like_Newark said...

If we ever hit the 'big reset', one item that should be discussed is the idea of universal suffrage. It is hard for a republic to survive if 'the mob' votes itself a raise from the public treasury.

The Founders created the electoral college in part to blunt mob rule. The Left is making headway to abolish the college as it (to them) an anathema to the idea of majority rule. In the end, we will end up under the worst kind of tyranny.

Tom said...

Easy to say, but give the rabble NO say and they revolt. It's a quandary. The founders set it up so that there would be a push me pull you effect, but the first thing the power hungry folks do is to deconstruct that.

We've had a good run as these things go. Nothing lasts forever.

Chess said...

Ok.. Back to splicing the electrical cord for my big jolt...But let me leave this earth with one more trample on law.


Local California Officials Consider Using Eminent Domain to Restructure Underwater Mortgages...

Don Meredith sang ===turn pout the lights the party's over.

Moxie D. Hoxie said...

I'm starting g to feel like Eyore now...

We are soooooooooo screwed...

Luke said...

Some times I think that the only way to save this thing that we once called "America" is for one or more of the states say "forget this, I'm taking my ball and going home, and don't try to after me." When a state that is a net sender to the feds decides that it will go its own way, who's going to stop it?

Tom said...

The US Army is history is any judge. But... it's a fair possibility that's exactly what will happen.

Luke said...

I don't know if the feds could count on the Army to do its bidding and actually use force against other Americans. Many of the combat arms types are from the states most likely to try to leave. I wouldn't necessarily count on the National Guard's of the surrounding states either.

Anonymous said...

Posts like these are good in reminding everyone that the fault is not with the Supreme Court, or even Congress, but ourselves for developing and nurturing a culture where far too many people live lives they have not earned or are willing or capable of earning on their own. It also brings to mind some great words from Milton Friendman, a man who was in his prime far before I was even born.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ac9j15eig_w&feature=player_embedded

Slightly related, I see a lot of court talk on this forum lately. I look forward to, though don't expect, talk of just how screwed up New Jersey became from it's own "great" decisions in Abbott, Mt. Laurel, and their progeny.

-Another conservative in occupied New Jersey.

ikaika said...

... Well who'd-a thunk, New Jersey would have been the shining beacon that the Federal Governement would follow?

and you are correct: we get the governement we deserve.

ikaika said...

When do they pass the firearms registration tax, ya know , because guns are a health hazard?

chess said...

We are 50 states that are not nearly united as we once were... The number one cause of marital discord is financial crap and it will be here also..
The day is coming where the states that saved for the winter will be asked to pay for the ones that didnt.(?grasshopper and ant story somewhere in that)...I can say for sure that Missourians dont want to pay for Californias budget shit.. It will turn America against itself...
Sad.

Chess said...

Ikaika you cynic.. Hell I bet Ginsberg is packing underneath her robe...She certainly has a pretty little gun like ?Nancy Reagan had...

ikaika said...

don't make me hurl...

Chess said...

Why arent you guys hiring anyone????? We all need to get behind BHO and push "forward" together...

Ok. Now I am hurling

Chess said...

Anyone here think Mark Zandy is a doofus..Not one intelligent question from anyone on this panel..

We will look back in 10 years and say these were the good old days. God help your children.

Chess said...

Finally a good surgical speech by Mitt..Finally.....Soft spoken and to the point...Time for some of the same in a commercial....

Come on Mitt..Take this electrical cord out of my hands....Give me back the Tom and Ikaika that i used to know@!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!