Wednesday, September 26, 2012


This is kind of interesting. It's an attempt to negate the effect that alleged 'liberal bias' in the form of oversampling of Democrats is having on the polls. What comes out of it matches my intuition about the election outcome much more accurately than what the drones in the media have been chanting about:

UnSkewed Polling Data
Poll Date Sample MoE Obama(D) Romney(R) Spread
UnSkewed Avg. 9/4 - 9/20 -- -- 44.0 51.8 Romney +7.8
Reason/Rupe 9/13 - 9/17 787 LV 4.3 45.0 52.0 Romney +7
Reuters/Ipsos 9/12 - 9/20 1437 LV 2.9 44.0 54.0 Romney +10
NBC News/WSJ 9/12 - 9/16 736 LV 3.6 44.0 51.0 Romney +7
Monmouth Univ. 9/13 - 9/16 1344 LV 2.5 45.0 50.0 Romney +5
QStarNews 9/10 - 9/15 2075 3.0 44.0 55.0 Romney +11
NY Times/CBS News 9/8 - 9/12 1162 LV 3.0 44.0 51.0 Romney +7
Democracy Corps 9/8 - 9/12 1000 LV 3.1 43.0 52.0 Romney +8
Fox News 9/9 - 9/11 1056 LV 3.0 45.0 48.0 Romney +3
Wash. Post/ABC News 9/7 - 9/9 826 LV 4.0 45.0 52.0 Romney +7
CNN/ORC 9/7 - 9/9 875 RV 3.5 45.0 53.0 Romney +8
IBD/CSM/TIPP 9/4 - 9/9 808 RV 3.5 41.0 50.0 Romney +9
ARG 9/4 - 9/6 1200 LV 3.0 43.0 53.0 Romney +10
I think this addresses the "What the F*** are those people thinking!?" question. The answer is, they aren't thinking it at all.

There are substantial notes about the process and reasons for it linked at the site. I recommend you go take a look.


chess said...

Now I get it but still afraid of it. I have sent dozens of out of state emails to make sure they vote as if their lives depend on it. Im hoping MO stays a lock.
Day after day seeing these polls very well could suppress repub turnout. Im hoping dems turnout is worse. Plus while i was there I figured I would donate a little more.

There was a good piece on Gillespie and Mitt saying within the camp there is a rule of "no whining bout the media". Its a sad constant but get over it.

ikaika said...

You have to understand that the press wing of the Democrat party is doing something very bad.
They are propping up their candidate to unrealistic expectations one week prior to the first debate.

Romney went through 18 debates taking shots from all sides.
In the months after the last debate, he has been peppered by a blisttering media assault.

Romney has been in debate preparation since the first Repub Debate - it hasn't ended. I wouldn't want to mess with him.

Hussein just started the debate prep. The media tells America everyday that the election is already over. They do this with polls and attitudes.

Obama has been receiving soft-ball press treatment ever since his hissy-fit in the rose garden.

Since then, he has been talking to Liberal Fan Conduits...

If Univision was his toughest challenge, he's in for trouble.

The news keeps running a soundbite from Ohio - Hussein is preparing to challenge Romney on defecit reduction... He wants to challenge a private equity guy to a math contest!

Even if Mitt wallops him in the debate, the loyal press will say that Hussein won.

This is dangerous for Hussein. If the media continues to misrepresent, then the Democrat voter turnout will be curtailed.

CNBC has it all wrong.

Tom said...

The moderators of the debates are all liberals. Every single question to Romney will be of the "when did you stop beating your wife" variety.

He's good at avoiding mistakes but he'll need to be fast on his feet - like Sununu or Newt, and then hope for Barry to show how thin his skin is. That's not his strength. But I think if he focuses on not allowing the moderators to set the terms of the questions based on accepted liberal dogma (which is another way of saying that he defends conservative principles) then he's got an excellent shot.

One way or the other though, what the debates will NOT be about in any way shape or form, will be the results that Obama has achieved. It will all be about his glorious intentions.

And even if Obama gets so angry that he calls Romney a cracker and summons Valerie Jarrett to the microphone to answer questions for him while he practices upstage with his putter, the press will only call it a draw.

ikaika said...

I hope the press goes full bore into counting chickens before they hatch.

The only thing Hussein has going for him in terms of voter turn-out are absentee ballots and "early voting".

I don't see Hussein getting the middle class or working class vote. I was recently told by a lib statistician that +7% lead for Obama in a Dem oversample of 9% equates to a landslide...

I asked what it means if the same poll with the same oversample shows the candidates even?

I was then treated to derogatory comments about how I probably wouldn't be able to grasp the science behind the math...

chess said...

I wont watch.Mitt needs to keep it short sweet and to the point. Dont wing it till the summation. Even then as Tom says the headlines will be "Romney will use death panels to solve entitlement crisis".

Repubs need to show up...This seems appropriate for today

EDITORIAL: Rigging the polls
Washington Times ^ | 09/27/2012 | Editorial Board

Posted on Thu Sep 27 2012 04:56:58 GMT-0600 (Central Standard Time) by nhwingut

Last week New York Times polling guru Nate Silver tweeted, “The. Polls. Have. Stopped. Making. Any. Sense.” They do make a lot of sense if the objective is to help President Obama win a second term — or so Democrats think.

Major election surveys in the last few months have shown Mr. Obama either in the lead or tied for the win, despite an economic record of massive unemployment and astronomical debt. With that kind of baggage, the current Oval Office occupant ought to be trailing by at least 10 points.[SNIP]

Another way to avoid the pitfalls of subjective partisan sampling is to look at the political middle. No candidate has been elected president in the modern era without winning middle-class voters and independents. According to the latest Politico/George Washington University battleground poll, Mr. Romney has a commanding 14-point advantage among middle-class families. According to Gallup, the “pure independents,” those without partisan or ideological affiliation, give Mr. Obama a 37 percent approval rating. Mr. Obama may believe that those who live on government handouts represent a “majority coalition,” but if he loses Middle America he will be off to Hawaii in January.

(Excerpt) Read more at ...