All the polls rely on assumptions about voter turnout which may or may not turn out to be true. As I’ve said, I have my reservations about the accepted models. I just don’t see Hillary getting the level of support from black America that Obama did. I don’t believe those people are ‘engaged in the political system’ now, and even if Hillary shows up with a bus and free cash for voters, I think many of them will have other things to do on election day.
I’m no professional pollster, so maybe that doesn’t matter as much as I think it does. But between that and the enormous enthusiasm gap between the left and right this year, I’m hoping it’s enough. But that enthusiasm gap would be greatly enhanced by a series of torrential downpours in Colorado, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina.
So if you guys know any rain dances for election day, get on out there. If you have a pilot’s license start seeding those clouds. There is no place where a rain storm won’t help Trump and the efforts to keep the Clintons out of the Whitehouse.