Tuesday, November 1, 2016

- Did Someone Say "Black Voter Turnout"?

%%UPDATE TO THE UPDATE%%

Even Slate's Jamie Bouie (a sometime referencer of this blog) is freaking out and pursuing the usual Liberal tack of preemptive excuse making. This is a great joy to me since this issue is something I've spoken privately about since Trump won the Primary, and publicly about for months. And although I'm sure I'm not the only guy who has, except for the Zerohedge article I linked ages ago, I haven't read anyone else raising the issue until now.

(That sound is me unabashedly patting myself on the back.)

%%UPDATE TO THE UPDATE%%

This is from Breitbart, so I hesitate to call it 'news', but there seems to be relevant data in it:

A blizzard of early reports show that early voting by pro-Democratic African Americans has dropped significantly compared to 2012, giving a boost to Donald Trump’s prospects in critical swing-states, such as North Carolina and Ohio.

In North Carolina, early voting by African-Americans is sharply down, so “you will see a very heavy push in this state for the African-American vote by Hilary Clinton to try to make up some of deficit,” said Michael Bitzer, a professor of politics and history at Catawba College, in Salisbury, N.C.

I know I've been going on about this issue, but one thing that rings true for me is that it's exactly the kind of solipsistic error I would expect from team Clinton.

Think about it. To team Clinton, the Trump effort is all about white supremacy and 'hatred' of women. It looks to them like an obviously racist campaign, so they assume black America will see it the same way. But when black America looks at the candidates, they see one rich white guy running against one rich white woman. Trump, at least they can understand. He speaks to them in terms that are familiar. They aren't going out of their way to vote for him, but they aren't in such a panic about the whole thing either.

Team Clinton, as in all things, is certain that everyone is seeing the same story they are. There has never been a ton of differing opinions on the left, and there are even fewer now. It would never in a million years occur to them that black America might see her as just as racist as Trump. But remember, all you have to do to be racist these days is to be white, and Clinton is every bit as much white as Trump is. If anything, she maybe seems a little more so to Black America.

So black America refuses to 'panic' to the degree that team Clinton hopes they will, black voter turnout drops precipitously, and all the polls really are wrong this time because their assumptions about voter turnout are all based on the same story that team Clinton sees.

I know this is the same song I've been singing for months, but to me it still seems relevant. And I think it really can make all the difference.

%%%%%%%%%%%UPDATE%%%%%%%%%%%

OK... Now it's "news".

Unlike many other people who are of better character than me, I have no problem saying "I told you so."

15 comments:

MikeCLT said...

I thought your questioning of the polling assumptions that Black turnout would be as high for Clinton as Obama was spot on. It was really pretty obvious. I am stunned that no one in the MSM or the polling industry has picked up on this even if it does go against The Narrative. "Everyone" thought house prices only increased too.

chess said...

I get first dance with her and will be staying in the Soros suite. Florida wont help but can kill Trump.... Sticking with ... It is hers to lose and even this wont be enough. More ammo

chess said...

I will give you your low turnout. I do believe Trump has a chance if he stays focused and the H doesnt have one final bomb to drop on Trump.He needs to say he will not toss the nukes around. . I think the underlying hope for the Trump camp is when you look at the underlying polling there seems to be consistent oversampling of dems.If so and it holds as is you can add 2-3 points for H(i always do because of her ground machine) and you could get 5-6 points for Trump.. Florida goes to H and turn off the tv.
I am getting out my tux

chess said...

and time for a stiff drink. North Carolina now virtual dead heat . last was +6 for the H.
I will get the tux out but not dry clean quite yet.

Muzzlethemuz said...

Chess - Love it!

ikaika said...

dr chess... allow me to pour you a fine Cask Strength Makers Mark on the rocks.
Last week was difficult. I have held my position that the Trump campaign "warts and all" is so unique and so driven that you will surprised. I have beta latin males telling me trump is a nazi. I explain that Clinton (s) is/are corrupt and a Trump presidency would in fact return US Govt to normal. Democrats will hate him, but will deal with him. The GOP will ultimately defend him and the Press will resume their role as the 4th estate. If Hillary wins, then we all lose. Even the people that wilfully and blindly vote for her will be unable to voice dissent. She is a stalinist and the left and her supporters can't see past the woman thing.
Like my older post: it is not her policies or lack thereof, and it is not even the level of corruption that would make caligula blush. No. It is her voice. That awful sound. The shrieking and cackling laugh that will haunt america to her grave...

ikaika said...

This week was like Christmas and Hannukah all rolled into one. God bless wikileaks. God bless Veritas. There is a tidal wave coming. Blue states will turn red. All the "pink states" aren't pink at all and Florida is no longer a battleground. Only Miami-Dade will be thorny. The rest of Florida is Trumpville. Even betasota (minnisota) will go red. The only sure bet though is that the market will go sour. It already stated to turn. A clinton presidency will be Nixon redeux, and a trump presidency will have the globalists scrambling to unwind their Clinton hedges. Oh Joy!

Muzzlethemuz said...

ikaika - her voice is so obnoxious I can't even listen to the posts you put up of her in jest. Because this has the potential to come to an indictment, there could be a constitutional crisis if she gets in. I think the rank and file of the FBI will rebel, the senate may be compromised but the House will stay Republican and there could be a SHTF moment before her coronation at that time when a preponderance of evidence suggests no other way forward but indictment. My assumption being, of course, that she broke the law. This is going to be a matter of degree, rather than kind. For SES on-up politicos this is usually the case regardless of political affiliation.

chess said...

Charles Krauthammer said last night that no matter who wins that civil war starts the next day...

Hell_Is_Like_Newark said...

I did what I could living in the bluest part of a deep blue state: I through a significant (for me) chunk of $$$ into Trump's campaign, starting in September. I made my last contribution for this election yesterday.

I didn't vote for him in the primary, but I am sure as hell going to vote for him in this election. Reading through the Wikileaks and seeing what Hillary did to Libya (I am not referring to Bengazi in this case), I am convinced that psychopathic bitch will get us in a hot war with Russia.

I have also been posting bits from Wikileaks about how Bernie got screwed. My hope is that 'Bernouts' will see it, get pissed, and stay home election day (or vote for Stein).

chess said...

Ikaika
I will take that bourbon neat. Lots of it because Soros just called and said he booked me in a Motel 6.....I asked why and he mumbled something about a suite of wireless hackers???.. Not sure what he meant...hmmmmm

VV said...

Hell, Ikaika and Chess,

Looks like he has FL and OH. The question is with PA. I am expecting a 3% hidden trump vote, even with that he is trailing and he needs PA.

Hell_Is_Like_Newark said...

VV:

I try not to think positive.. Doing so too often leads to disappointment.

chess said...

I still think it is hers to lose. sorry.Florida is toss up.

Hell_Is_Like_Newark said...

Standing in line at the post office today, there were two elderly gentlemen in front of me. One black the other Puerto Rican. Both agreed that Hillary is a disaster and will start a war with Russia.

It warmed my heart...